Monday, November 20, 2006

Wow...

...Jim Hendry done lost his goddamn mind.

Further proof that your average message board poster, given the proper contacts and relevant apprenticeships, could probably do as well or better than most of the General Managers in the Major Leagues.

Rumor has it that the deal is only six years guaranteed, with the seventh and eighth being options. And that would make the reported deal far less insane. But the following applies even if the deal is for six years - and far more vehemently if it's for eight.

I've already ranted plenty on why Soriano would have been a terrible Oriole free agent signing for the kind of money he would have (and seemingly, has) received. All I'm going to say is: His on-base percentage in 2006 was .026 better than his current career average. If you believe the sabermetrics crowd (and I generally do), then you think that OBP is the single most important offensive statistic in baseball. And patience is not something that most hitters learn at age 30.

In other words: He's highly unlikely to consistently replicate the career year he just had.

He's also 30, which means he'll be 36 (or 38, if all eight years are guaranteed) at the end of his deal. The idiocy of this deal isn't so much in the first two or three years - it's in the probability that Soriano will be one of the most expensive mediocre-to-decent players in the game by the end of his contract.

In other words: Most baseball players reach their peak around age 27, then start to decline - some slowly, some rapidly. And Soriano isn't that good to begin with. You do the math.

So, Cubbies, I hope you win a title in the next couple of years, because - much like the Tigers will soon find out with Magglio Ordonez - paying aging, marginal players shit-tons of money might work out well in the short-term, but it's hardly a sustainable path to success.

Thursday, November 16, 2006

From the "Strained photo op" department...


So, Steny Hoyer is the new Majority Leader. Look at those beautifully awkward smiles. They're really putting on a good face for the kids, aren't they?

In case you hadn't heard, Nancy Pelosi (left), California (and former Bawlmer) Girl and soon-to-be Speaker of the House, supported John Murtha over Maryland's own Steny Hoyer (right) for the role of Majority Leader, which is the #2 position in the House leadership behind Speaker.

Couple of problems with that. One, Hoyer has been Pelosi's Number Two since 2001, when Hoyer lost to Pelosi for Minority Leader. So instead of backing her (ostensibly) loyal lieutenant, she supported Murtha, the guy who had backed her for Minority Leader against Hoyer five years ago. AWKWARD. Hence the strained photo op.

Two, Pelosi supported Murtha publicly on Sunday - only four days before the vote, when most House Dems had already decided for whom to vote.

So, let's see: Pelosi gets unanimously voted Speaker, then proceeds to waste her political capital on a pointless power struggle by publicly supporting one of her allies too late to have any impact, and in the process, dissing the guy who has been and will be serving directly under her. Nancy, sweetie: Not the smartest thing you've ever done.

The irony in this is that John Murtha, while an outspoken opponent of the Iraq War, is pretty conservative on most other issues, including abortion - yet he's the one winning the support of many very liberal Dems, including Pelosi and Dennis Kucinich, who feel that Murtha's outspoken opposition to the war helped turn the midterm elections in the Dems' favor. Meanwhile, Hoyer, a man respected on both sides of the aisle, gets his support from the more moderate Dems, even though he is generally far more liberal than Murtha.

So, what does this mean? Honestly, probably nothing. Maybe Hoyer can use this as leverage against Pelosi if they have disagreements on a particular vote ("Don't worry, Congressman X, side with me on this one. She opposed me for Majority Leader and I won almost 2 to 1. Who cares what she thinks?"). Maybe all hatchets will be buried. But whatever the repercussions, Pelosi made a huge error in judgement by supporting an obvious losing cause in Murtha. Hopefully our girl Nancy will keep refining those political skills as time goes on. After all, being out of power for a long time can make you forget what it's like to have power.

In other news, the Orioles just signed situational lefty Jamie Walker to a 3-year deal worth $12 million. Not totally thrilled, especially when we just traded away a perfectly fine bullpen arm who was considerably younger and cheaper, but the bullpen was an absolute fiasco last year (aside from Chris Ray and the departed Britton), so I'm willing to wait and see. Walker has been anywhere from pretty good to great for the past five years, even when you take into account his cavernous home park.

However, his K-rate is all over the place, and I hate the cliched, outdated notion that you HAVE TO HAVE a lefty specialist in the bullpen (although Walker has been decent vs. righties). The Angels won a World Series in 2002 with ZERO righties in their bullpen. (Then again, they also had Darin Erstad playing CF, so what do I know, really?)

Also, the Terps just beat St. Johns by 32 points. I'll have more on the Terps another time. But let's just say I haven't been this excited about a Maryland team since the 2001-02 National Championship squad.

You know what the difference is? A white point guard! Ha, ha! I'm kidding, but I am not kidding that selfish, immature shoot-first PGs with delusions of grandeur can suck it, hardcore. I'm looking at YOU, Gilchrist. Now that we've excised the tumor that was the 2002-03 freshman class, maybe now we can get back to winning basketball games.